{"id":"palomar/PALOMAR-2026-10-29-000022","url":"https://github.com/cenozoic-works/rhone-theory/tree/babec8449a724c270450c7c0e2cd3985ccc2a989","json":"https://data.palomar-registry.org/entries/PALOMAR-2026-10-29-000022-v1.json","repo":"https://github.com/cenozoic-works/rhone-theory","tags":["q-bio.PE","math.PR","msc:92D10","msc:60J10","msc:60G42","msc:92D15"],"score":0,"title":"Neutral fixation probability in exchangeable (Cannings) models","trust":"high","domain":"q-bio.PE","source":"palomar","authors":["X. Lee","N. Volkov"],"reviews":0,"subject":"q-bio.PE","summary":"This entry formalizes the neutral fixation probability in exchangeable (Cannings) models with N individuals. For a non-degenerate model, the probability that the allele count started from i copies ever reaches N equals i/N, and the same holds for eventual absorption in the fixed state. The loss probability is 1 − i/N. For a degenerate model started away from the full state the probability of fixation is 0, and an example with N = 2 shows that the fixation probability can differ from the frequency without a reachability hypothesis. For N ≥ 2, non-degeneracy is shown equivalent to…","category":"research","comments":0,"disputed":false,"division":"q-bio","mentions":0,"verified":true,"discussed":0,"published":"2026-10-29","reactions":{},"formalized":true,"formalizes":[{"title":"Cannings models (chapter 3 of lecture notes)","identifier":"https://www.math.uni-tuebingen.de/user/moehle/sp_cannings.pdf","relationship":"adapts"}]}