A prespecified betting test of panmixia against a two-deme history: size and power
This entry formalizes a prespecified fixed-sample test, based on independent blocks of three linked sites observed at three sampled tips with four allelic states, of a panmictic null model against a two-deme alternative. Under the null, the three-tip genealogy follows the coalescent with a time-varying pair-coalescence rate r, and sites mutate under the four-state equal-rates model with scale k. For every nonnegative locally integrable rate r whose integrated clock diverges and every k > 0, the rejection probability with at least 72,000,000,000 independent blocks is at most 1/20. For one…
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