Open Research Index

Neutral fixation probability in exchangeable (Cannings) models

X. Lee, N. Volkov

Palomar Registrypalomar/PALOMAR-2026-10-29-000022Oct 29, 2026q-bio.PEscore 0

This entry formalizes the neutral fixation probability in exchangeable (Cannings) models with N individuals. For a non-degenerate model, the probability that the allele count started from i copies ever reaches N equals i/N, and the same holds for eventual absorption in the fixed state. The loss probability is 1 − i/N. For a degenerate model started away from the full state the probability of fixation is 0, and an example with N = 2 shows that the fixation probability can differ from the frequency without a reachability hypothesis. For N ≥ 2, non-degeneracy is shown equivalent to…

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